Dodge City Data Duel: AI vs. The Unarmed Cowboy

Richard Walker
May 22, 2024
4 min read

Updated: May 23, 2024

(Spoiler: It's a Draw!)

What was true in Dodge City in 1870 is true today

While the "Wild West" is often romanticized as a time of frequent gunfights, the reality is more nuanced. However, if we consider the peak of gun-related violence and lawlessness in the American West, it likely falls within the period between 1870 and 1885. The aftermath of the Civil War saw an influx of veterans and firearms into the West, contributing to social unrest and violence.

Let's pose a question as relevant then as it is today: Who would win in a fight between an unarmed cowboy and a Colt .45?

The answer: It's a tie.

Clearly if the gunfight were between an unarmed cowboy versus a cowboy armed with a Colt .45 the outcome would be monotonously predictable.

The image of the gunfight serves as a useful analogy for the debates raging today. around technology and unemployment. The false dichotomy is that of human vs AI. This is far from how things will actually play out. The more insightful among us will take a considered look at "human" vs "human-augmented-with-AI". Workers are often seen as defenceless against the rise of the machines. In reality they are at a huge disadvantage relative to the workers that have harnessed the machines.

Jevons Paradox: When Steam Engines and AI Drive Demand, Not Downsizing

Journalists and economists enjoy making predictions about automation more than they enjoy testing them. It is common to read predictions about widespread job losses due to the adoption of AI. However, history paints a different picture. Countries with high tech adoption, like Japan and Singapore, consistently enjoy low unemployment. The doomsayers often overlook human adaptability and the fact that technology tends to augment rather than replace jobs.

In the 19th century, economist William Stanley Jevons observed a curious phenomenon: when more efficient steam engines reduced the coal needed to generate power, coal consumption rose. This seemingly paradoxical effect, now known as the Jevons Paradox, reveals a fundamental truth about technological progress. As tools become more efficient, their use becomes more widespread, leading to increased demand for the very input they were meant to conserve.

The shift from lower value-added roles like bookkeeping to accounting, auditing, financial analysts and financial managers since the advent of the spreadsheet (VisiCalc, Lotus 1-2-3 & Microsoft Excel) - source WSJ

White-Collar Wranglers: Taming AI for Career Success

This paradox applies not only to physical resources like coal but also to information-based inputs. In the 1980s, the rise of personal computers and spreadsheets revolutionized data manipulation. Tasks that were once time-consuming and error-prone became effortless. This newfound efficiency didn't lead to the demise of accounting jobs. On the contrary, it fueled demand for accountants, auditors, and financial managers, who harnessed the power of spreadsheets to unlock new insights and provide higher-value services.

From Stephen Hawking to Elon Musk, warnings about artificial intelligence (AI) displacing jobs echo through the halls of Davos and Silicon Valley. Yet, history suggests that such fears, while understandable, may be misplaced. If history rather than the doomsayers is correct then the advent of AI, much like the introduction of the spreadsheet decades ago, might be less likely to lead to job apocalypse but rather a transformation of the employment landscape.

Saddle Up for Change: AI is Here to Stay, Partner!

The real lesson here is that the competition isn't as binary as an armed versus unarmed cowboy. In the modern economy, the true winners are those who leverage technology to complement human skills rather than replace them. This collaboration creates new opportunities and drives economic growth.

Companies that adopt technology to enhance productivity rather than simply cut costs often find themselves ahead of the competition. For instance, in the manufacturing sector, robots handle repetitive tasks, freeing up human workers to focus on more complex and creative aspects of production. This symbiosis not only preserves jobs but also creates new roles that didn't exist before.

The same pattern is unfolding with AI. While it may render some jobs redundant, it also creates new opportunities. For example, AI's ability to predict outcomes and analyze large datasets makes various decision-making processes more efficient. This doesn't eliminate the need for human expertise; rather, it enhances the value of skills that complement AI's capabilities.